Will the coming Deepawali be as bright, if not brighter than, the last one? But, why are we asking that question in the first place? What with the global economy slowing down, spreading its gloom on the otherwise chirpy Indian economy? What with the inflation almost breaching the psychological barrier and what with India, almost stopping short of slipping into a technical recession? Will the festival of lights this year dispel darkness and usher in light? That's the question bothering the retail fraternity, as it is lurking somewhere in the minds of corporate India.
Let's examine the situation closely - first, the economy. Inflation has begun to recede and is now closer to the 12% mark rather than the 13% mark that it recorded recently. But yet more than double the cruising speed of 6% that it was at the beginning of this year. What does that mean? It means that money is becoming more expensive. We are having to pay more than usual for the goods and services that we WANT - like air travel; eating out at restaurants; staying at star hotels etc; which is mostly going to be the concern of corporates; whose executives travel; stay at hotels and eat at restaurants outside of their home stations. Not just that, we are also having to pay more for the goods and services that we NEED - such as everyday food and grocery; vegetables and fruits and not to mention, fuel - which is what pinches the pockets of people like you and me. Will the rising cost of goods and services dampen the Deepawali spirit?
Well, at the outset, what I have personally noticed is that people's expenditure on fire crackers over the years has been declining. I don't remember when I last spent on fire crackers for the family. Urban India is becoming increasingly aware of the environmental pollution that firecrackers contribute towards and want to do their bit in not adding to it. Therefore, I foresee a far lesser expenditure on fireworks in metros and mini-metros. What else happens in the world of retail during the festive season?
There are bound to be offers and promotions galore in practically all formats of retail - mostly retailers of electronics; apparel; silk and jewellery will come up with their most innovative marketing spells yet! In electronics for example, there will be freebies on every purchase - only that earlier, you could expect to get a water-filter free if you bought a 29" TV, but now it could well be that you may get a 350lt double-door refrigerator free with every 32" LCD TV that you buy! The supermarkets and hypermarkets will not be left alone - they will run their own versions of offers and promotions - you will probably be in the running for a grand prize of a BMW - in a lucky draw if you made purchases over say, Rs.4,999. No, there is not even the remotest connection between onions or potatoes and a Beemer!
What more, you may even get interest free credit - seemingly of course; when you buy that 52" plasma TV, and want to pay in 36 instalments. Remember, our country is blessed with some of the best brains in the marketing world - haven't you seen how many golden lions our advertising agencies have amassed at the Cannes? We can make any event - from blockbusters to cricket matches into money spinners; with related merchandise, freebies and other memorabilia. On the flip side, you and I have long put on hold the intention to buy that 3BHK apartment or upgrade to a swanky sedan. But certainly, we are not the kind that will put away the idea of picking up 3 shirts for Rs.999 and getting 2 trousers worth Rs.1,299 free! Are we?
At least not when such purchases happen in an impulse; when you are least expecting them. Add to that, most of us have enough credit cards in our wallets that collectively can put a plastic manufacturer's warehouse to shame; bulging from hip-pockets of already unsteady denims that are precariously hanging from indescribable waist-lines! Well, who's bothered about shirts and trousers during Deepawali? Shouldn't we be talking of silk sarees, gold earrings, bangles and necklaces? Of course, we should. Silk merchants are an uncelebrated lot. It is surprising that in a nation of close to 400 million women, most of who wear sarees, there is no organised saree retail chain across the country. The lure of silk or even non-silk sarees on women is a subject matter worthy of exclusive treatment. Remember, here too, there are bound to be promotions and offers. Who says you need promotions and offers for women to shop for sarees? Thankfully, gold prices have begun to go southwards after the peak that they were at some months ago. And, jewelry retailers are about to woo the women folk with their 'NO making charges' offers. There is a popular belief that 'Man is a victim of circumstances' - I would believe so, if he is married or has an equally compassionate girlfriend!
Therefore, with none of us wanting to cut down on our accustomed lifestyles and habits and having put away major capital intensive and wasteful purchases; the average Indian is going be unaffected by rising prices, just as he is unaffected by the pot-hole ridden roads; incessant power-cuts and dry taps that are all part of India at 61. Come what may, there is nothing that would dampen the spirit of a true Indian and definitely not during the festival of lights! Retailers may not touch unreasonably aggressive targets but will have their cash registers ringing nevertheless.
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